Marr\u00ebveshja mbetet e brisht\u00eb pavar\u00ebsisht zgjatjes nga Trump<\/p>\n
Presidenti amerikan Donald Trump njoftoi t\u00eb mart\u00ebn zgjatjen e arm\u00ebpushimit mes Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe Iranit, vet\u00ebm disa or\u00eb pasi kishte k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar se do t\u00eb rifillonte bombardimet ndaj vendit n\u00ebse nuk arrihej nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje para skadimit t\u00eb tij nj\u00eb dit\u00eb m\u00eb pas. Duke p\u00ebrmendur \u201cp\u00ebr\u00e7arjen serioze\u201d t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb iraniane, Trump tha se do t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbahej nga sulmet derisa udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit iranian\u00eb t\u00eb arrinin nj\u00eb \u201cpropozim t\u00eb unifikuar\u201d p\u00ebr paqe. Ai nuk p\u00ebrcaktoi nj\u00eb afat t\u00eb ri.<\/p>\n
Kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb gjat\u00eb konfliktit q\u00eb Trump kalon shpejt nga paralajm\u00ebrimet p\u00ebr dhun\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrt n\u00eb hapje ndaj diplomacis\u00eb. Fakti q\u00eb ai \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr vazhdimisht nga k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime t\u00eb tilla sugjeron se ai synon t\u2019i jap\u00eb fund konfliktit, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb jopopullor n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe ka shkaktuar nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb globale energjetike.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, arm\u00ebpushimi mbetet shum\u00eb i brisht\u00eb dhe nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb n\u00ebse do t\u00eb zhvillohet nj\u00eb raund tjet\u00ebr bisedimesh paqeje. Bllokada detare amerikane ndaj porteve iraniane vazhdon (edhe pse disa anije raportohet se po kalojn\u00eb), nd\u00ebrsa Teherani vazhdon t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb kontroll t\u00eb fort\u00eb mbi Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit. T\u00eb m\u00ebrkur\u00ebn, Irani q\u00eblloi ndaj disa anijeve n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb ngushtic\u00eb dhe sekuestroi dy prej tyre.<\/p>\n
Retorika dhe veprimet kontradiktore t\u00eb Trump gjat\u00eb konfliktit, si dhe historia e tij e nd\u00ebrhyrjeve ushtarake kund\u00ebr Iranit gjat\u00eb negociatave, jan\u00eb nd\u00ebr arsyet pse nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje duket ende e larg\u00ebt. Teherani, i cili e ka quajtur bllokad\u00ebn amerikane shkelje t\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimit, ka b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb se nuk i beson Trump. Mahdi Mohammadi, k\u00ebshilltar i kryetarit t\u00eb parlamentit iranian dhe negociatorit kryesor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, tha se zgjatja e arm\u00ebpushimit \u201cnuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb asgj\u00eb\u201d dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb \u201cmanov\u00ebr p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar koh\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb sulm t\u00eb papritur\u201d.<\/p>\n
Ghalibaf deklaroi gjithashtu se nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim i plot\u00eb ka kuptim vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse p\u00ebrfundon bllokada amerikane.<\/p>\n
Arsyeja e dh\u00ebn\u00eb nga Trump p\u00ebr zgjatjen e arm\u00ebpushimit, p\u00ebr\u00e7arja e udh\u00ebheqjes iraniane si rezultat i luft\u00ebs, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn gjithashtu nj\u00eb penges\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr nj\u00eb zgjidhje diplomatike. Ka shum\u00eb shenja q\u00eb negociator\u00ebt kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb ministrin e Jasht\u00ebm Abbas Araghchi, nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb linj\u00eb me element\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt duket se po forcojn\u00eb kontrollin mbi vendimmarrjen n\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n
Me arm\u00ebpushimin q\u00eb q\u00ebndron n\u00eb nj\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr t\u00eb brisht\u00eb, lindin disa pyetje kryesore n\u00ebse ai d\u00ebshton p\u00ebrfundimisht.<\/p>\n
A do t\u00eb rifilloj\u00eb lufta e Izraelit kund\u00ebr Hezbollahut? Arm\u00ebpushimi n\u00eb Liban mes Izraelit dhe Hezbollahut, nj\u00eb grup militant i lidhur me Iranin, \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu shum\u00eb i brisht\u00eb. T\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt kan\u00eb akuzuar nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn p\u00ebr shkelje q\u00eb nga hyrja n\u00eb fuqi e tij jav\u00ebn e kaluar, edhe pse diplomacia mes Izraelit dhe qeveris\u00eb libaneze vazhdon. Ky arm\u00ebpushim \u00ebsht\u00eb i lidhur ngusht\u00eb me at\u00eb SHBA\u2013Iran, edhe pse fillimisht Izraeli dhe SHBA refuzuan ta p\u00ebrfshinin Libanin n\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje, pavar\u00ebsisht insistimit t\u00eb Teheranit. Para shpalljes s\u00eb nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimi 10-ditor n\u00eb Liban m\u00eb 16 prill nga Trump, kjo mosmarr\u00ebveshje pothuajse e rr\u00ebzoi marr\u00ebveshjen SHBA\u2013Iran. Libani po k\u00ebrkon zgjatje t\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimit dhe priten bisedime t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb Uashington, por n\u00ebse marr\u00ebveshja SHBA\u2013Iran d\u00ebshton, Izraeli mund t\u00eb rifilloj\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht operacionet n\u00eb Liban.<\/p>\n
A do t\u00eb nis\u00eb SHBA nj\u00eb operacion tok\u00ebsor n\u00eb Iran? Para shpalljes s\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimit, pati shum\u00eb spekulime se Trump mund t\u00eb d\u00ebrgonte trupa amerikane n\u00eb Iran si pjes\u00eb e operacioneve t\u00eb mundshme, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb marrjen n\u00ebn kontroll t\u00eb ishullit Kharg, i vog\u00ebl por strategjik, dhe sigurimin e uraniumit t\u00eb pasuruar t\u00eb Iranit. Ekspert\u00ebt ushtarak\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se operacione t\u00eb tilla do t\u00eb ishin jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb rrezikshme dhe do t\u00eb vinin trupat amerikane n\u00eb rrezik serioz. Megjithat\u00eb, k\u00ebto opsione mbeten n\u00eb tryez\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Shtetet e Bashkuara kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 50 mij\u00eb trupa t\u00eb vendosur n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb mij\u00ebra marinsa dhe parashutist\u00eb, si dhe qindra forca speciale. Forca t\u00eb tjera jan\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb rrug\u00eb drejt rajonit, s\u00eb bashku me mjete t\u00eb tjera ushtarake.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb operacion p\u00ebr shp\u00ebtimin e ekuipazhit t\u00eb nj\u00eb avioni luftarak amerikan t\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb prillit \u00ebsht\u00eb rasti i vet\u00ebm i konfirmuar publikisht i hyrjes s\u00eb forcave tok\u00ebsore amerikane n\u00eb Iran gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij konflikti. Por n\u00ebse arm\u00ebpushimi d\u00ebshton, Trump mund t\u00eb vendos\u00eb se d\u00ebrgimi i trupave n\u00eb terren \u00ebsht\u00eb i nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur presionin ndaj Teheranit dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur objektivat e shpallura t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, pavar\u00ebsisht pretendimeve t\u00eb tij se k\u00ebto objektiva jan\u00eb arritur tashm\u00eb. Senatori republikan Roger Marshall deklaroi se SHBA mund t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb Iran p\u00ebr \u201cta p\u00ebrfunduar pun\u00ebn\u201d n\u00ebse nuk arrihet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje n\u00eb jav\u00ebt n\u00eb vijim.<\/p>\n
Cilat jan\u00eb kapacitetet e mbetura ushtarake t\u00eb Iranit? Trump dhe zyrtar\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb deklarata t\u00eb gjera p\u00ebr ndikimin e sulmeve amerikane dhe izraelite ndaj ushtris\u00eb iraniane. \u201cKemi shkat\u00ebrruar flot\u00ebn e tyre detare. Kemi shkat\u00ebrruar forc\u00ebn ajrore. Kemi eliminuar drejtuesit e tyre\u201d, tha Trump t\u00eb mart\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Megjith\u00ebse nuk ka dyshim q\u00eb lufta ka \u00e7uar n\u00eb vdekjen e shum\u00eb drejtuesve t\u00eb lart\u00eb iranian\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsin suprem Ali Khamenei, dhe ka dob\u00ebsuar ndjesh\u00ebm ushtrin\u00eb, ka shenja n\u00eb rritje se administrata Trump mund ta ket\u00eb mbivler\u00ebsuar shkall\u00ebn e d\u00ebmit.<\/p>\n
Rr\u00ebzimi i avion\u00ebve amerikan\u00eb dhe sulmet e vazhdueshme ndaj anijeve tregtare tregojn\u00eb se Irani ruan ende kapacitete q\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim n\u00ebse arm\u00ebpushimi d\u00ebshton. Gjenerallejt\u00ebnant James Adams, drejtues i Agjencis\u00eb s\u00eb Inteligjenc\u00ebs s\u00eb Mbrojtjes s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, tha se Irani \u201cruan mij\u00ebra raketa dhe dron\u00eb sulmues nj\u00ebkah\u00ebsh q\u00eb mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnojn\u00eb forcat amerikane dhe aleat\u00ebt n\u00eb rajon, pavar\u00ebsisht dob\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb p\u00ebsuara\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb ndodh me Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit? Duke qen\u00eb se kontrolli i k\u00ebsaj ngushtice mbetet i diskutuesh\u00ebm edhe gjat\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimit, pritet q\u00eb kjo situat\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00ebse marr\u00ebveshja d\u00ebshton. Kontrolli i Iranit mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb rrug\u00eb detare ka qen\u00eb leva e tij m\u00eb e fort\u00eb n\u00eb konflikt dhe pritet t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret si mjet presioni edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen. E ardhmja e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit mbetet nj\u00eb nga \u00e7\u00ebshtjet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb pazgjidhura.<\/p>\n
A do ta mbyllin Houthit Bab el-Mandeb? Rebel\u00ebt Houthi n\u00eb Jemen, aleat\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit, mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrin hapa p\u00ebr t\u00eb bllokuar ngushtic\u00ebn Bab el-Mandeb, nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb ky\u00e7e q\u00eb lidh Detin e Kuq me Gjirin e Adenit, n\u00ebse luftimet mes SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit rifillojn\u00eb. Si Houthit, ashtu edhe Irani e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrmendur k\u00ebt\u00eb si nj\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme hakmarr\u00ebse, e cila do t\u00eb shtonte m\u00eb tej presionin mbi ekonomin\u00eb globale, tashm\u00eb t\u00eb goditur nga situata n\u00eb Hormuz.<\/p>\n
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