Parashikimet e reja tregojn\u00eb besim n\u00eb rritje se El Nino n\u00eb zhvillim n\u00eb Oqeanin Paq\u00ebsor tropikal mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb nga m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishmit e regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, me paralajm\u00ebrime p\u00ebr temperatura rekord globale dhe ndikime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha humanitare.<\/p>\n
Pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorit jan\u00eb ngrohur me shpejt\u00ebsi, me t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e k\u00ebsaj jave q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb temperaturat e sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb detit rreth 0.5 grad\u00eb Celsius mbi normalen \u2013 nj\u00eb prag i p\u00ebrdorur p\u00ebr t\u00eb sugjeruar fillimin e El Nino-s, nj\u00eb ngrohje natyrale e Paq\u00ebsorit.<\/p>\n
Pritet t\u00eb forcohet gjat\u00eb disa muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, duke arritur kulmin potencialisht si nj\u00eb El Nino shum\u00eb i fort\u00eb \u2013 ose i ashtuquajturi super El Nino \u2013 n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr pasojat q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb n\u00eb modelet globale t\u00eb motit, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb viti 2027 t\u00eb jet\u00eb viti m\u00eb i ngroht\u00eb i regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb parashikimin e tyre t\u00eb fundit, Administrata Komb\u00ebtare Oqeanografike dhe Atmosferike (NOAA) sugjeron se El Nino do t\u00eb filloj\u00eb brenda muajit.<\/p>\n
Ata e kan\u00eb rritur besimin n\u00eb nj\u00eb shans dy n\u00eb tre q\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i fort\u00eb ose edhe shum\u00eb i fort\u00eb deri k\u00ebt\u00eb dim\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
Shkalla e ngrohjes e v\u00ebrejtur n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal gjat\u00eb disa jav\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit ka qen\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nathanial Johnson, nj\u00eb meteorolog n\u00eb NOAA e p\u00ebrshkroi at\u00eb si nj\u00eb \u201cndodhje t\u00eb rrall\u00eb\u201d n\u00ebse do t\u00eb vazhdonte me ritmin aktual \u2013 duke kaluar nga La Nina (nj\u00eb model i ngjash\u00ebm ftohjeje) q\u00eb pam\u00eb n\u00eb dim\u00ebr n\u00eb nj\u00eb El Nino potencialisht t\u00eb fort\u00eb, brenda nj\u00eb viti.<\/p>\n
Byroja e Meteorologjis\u00eb (BoM) n\u00eb Australi parashikon gjithashtu El Nino duke p\u00ebrdorur nj\u00eb kriter pak m\u00eb t\u00eb rrept\u00eb, ku temperaturat e sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb detit n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal duhet t\u00eb kalojn\u00eb 0.8 grad\u00eb Celsius mbi mesataren.<\/p>\n
Ata gjithashtu k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb indikacione se er\u00ebrat e tregtis\u00eb n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin per\u00ebndimor jan\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysur; duke sinjalizuar se oqeani q\u00eb po ngrohet po fillon t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb atmosfer\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Parashikimet e pranver\u00ebs p\u00ebr El Nino historikisht kan\u00eb qen\u00eb mjaft t\u00eb dob\u00ebta, por parashikuesit e motit kan\u00eb qen\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb sigurt se normalisht k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb El Nino i fort\u00eb?
\nNd\u00ebrsa El Nino formohet n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal, parashikuesit e motit shqyrtojn\u00eb nj\u00eb rajon n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti t\u00eb quajtur Nino3.4, duke monitoruar nj\u00eb mesatare tremujore t\u00eb temperatur\u00ebs s\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb detit krahasuar me mesataren afatgjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb El Nino i fort\u00eb ose \u2018super El Nino\u2019 \u00ebsht\u00eb kur temperatura shkon mbi 1.5 grad\u00eb Celsius.<\/p>\n
Parashikimet nga Qendra Evropiane p\u00ebr Parashikime t\u00eb Motit Afatmes\u00ebm (ECMWF), NOAA dhe BoM jan\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha pothuajse t\u00eb p\u00ebrafruara n\u00eb rezultatet e tyre.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb parashikimin e fundit nga ECMWF, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysma e modeleve t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb parashikimit sugjerojn\u00eb nj\u00eb temperatur\u00eb mbi 2.5 grad\u00eb Celsius deri n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u00c7do temperatur\u00eb mbi 2.5 grad\u00eb Celsius do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb \u201cngjarje historikisht e fort\u00eb\u201d, tha Johnson.<\/p>\n
Parashikimet e BoM tregojn\u00eb gjithashtu me besim mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e nj\u00eb El Nino shum\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb zhvillohet m\u00eb von\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n
Disa t\u00eb dh\u00ebna parashikuese madje sugjerojn\u00eb q\u00eb temperatura mund t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb 3 grad\u00eb Celsius, duke tejkaluar kulmin aktual t\u00eb njohur prej 2.7 grad\u00ebsh Celsius t\u00eb regjistruar n\u00eb vitin 1877.<\/p>\n
Duhet theksuar se kjo ishte nj\u00eb epok\u00eb shum\u00eb e ndryshme me v\u00ebzhgime t\u00eb kufizuara dhe k\u00ebshtu mbetet shum\u00eb pasiguri n\u00eb temperatur\u00ebn e raportuar.<\/p>\n
El Nino zgjati rreth 18 muaj, gj\u00eb q\u00eb shkaktoi nj\u00eb ngjarje katastrofike globale klimatike, duke shkaktuar that\u00ebsir\u00eb ??ekstreme dhe zi buke t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Azin\u00eb, Brazilin dhe Afrik\u00ebn, t\u00eb cilat vran\u00eb miliona njer\u00ebz, nd\u00ebrsa shkaktuan p\u00ebrmbytje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb rajone t\u00eb tjera si Peruja.<\/p>\n
El Nino i fundit \u201cshum\u00eb i fort\u00eb\u201d ndodhi n\u00eb vitet 2015-2016 kur temperatura mesatare tremujore (n\u00ebntor, dhjetor, janar) Nino3.4 arriti n\u00eb 2.4\u00b0C<\/p>\n
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